By Wei Shi
Analyst firm Analysys Mason reckons the telecoms industry will return to modest growth from 2021, but it will take three years for the industry revenue to come back to the pre-COVID-19 level.
Analysys Mason has shared its leading predictions for the telecoms industry with a group of selected media outlets, Telecoms.com being one of them. Analysts at the firm believed the telecoms industry will suffer a $43 billion drop in revenue this year, equivalent to 2.7% decline from 2019. They foresee a 1% growth in 2021, and the industry as a whole won’t be able to go back to and overtake the 2019 revenue level until 2023.
The analysts recognised that 5G connectivity service for consumers will not deliver meaningful ARPU increase, at least not in the short-term, due to the limited coverage and consumers keeping a tighter hold on their purse strings in difficult times. This will drive telecom operators to seek new opportunities in both consumer and, probably more importantly, enterprise markets.
In consumer markets, Analysys Mason predicts telecom operators will monetise their edge and cloud assets more aggressively, including pushing for edge gaming. They also expect to see fixed-mobile convergence being used by integrated operators as a stronger leverage, by players like Deutsche Telekom, Orange, and Telefonica. Stephen Sale, the firm’s Research Director for Consumer Services, highlighted that fixed broadband business has helped offset the decline in mobile for many operators. He also believed that the fixed wireless access business, which has registered a healthy 4% growth, will continue to expand.
Originally published on telecoms.com December 1, 2020